Working Groups

Leaders: Prof. Simon Gosling & Dr Laura Dobor

WG1 brings together scientists that are experts in handling data relevant for cross-sectoral climate impact simulations and have experience in developing protocols for biophysical climate impact model comparisons. The focus of WG1 is especially on developing protocols that combine climatic data including past and future climate simulations from Regional and Global Climate Models, additional drivers include ground ozone or lightning as well as socioeconomic data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and land-use data. WG1 also ensures that the output variables of the biophysical impact models are clearly defined so that impact transmission chain models of WG2 can make use of the data. WG1 will follow existing scenario frameworks, most notably the existing RCPSSP framework and its updates through the ScenarioMIP initiative also closely linked to the IPCC.

WG1 will for example support endeavours to select data and harmonise data for climate impact studies by discussing conceptual issues such as which climate models to select from the large number of CMIP scenario runs to keep the number of impact simulations as low as possible while still covering large parts of the scenario space but also technical issues such as how to handle leap years in the climate data. Potential TGs of WG1 that are central to the success of the WG and which will be created at the beginning of CROSS-CASCADE cover the following tasks: data harmonisation, quality assurance and checking and developing cross-sectoral impact modelling protocols. The COST networking tools in WG1 will be used to improve the technical skills of the impact modelling community to handle large datasets and complex file formats while also unravelling the benefits and caveats of using common protocols for multi-model ensemble simulations. The data, code and protocols produced as part of this WG and its STSMs will be made available under a Creative Commons licence to maximise its utilisation beyond this Action.

Leaders: Dr Elisa Delpiazzo & Dr Johanna Hedlund

WG2 brings together scientists from a wide range of communities that model impact transmission chains, e.g. trade, supply chain, financial, economic and migration modellers. By bringing these groups together, the focus of WG2 is 1) to enable a common understanding of the different methods, model types (process-based or empirical) and tools to simulate trade patterns, supply chains, financial markets and human displacement and 2) to assess how these systems are affected by and can be managed to respond to cascading climate impacts.

These models include more sectoral models (e.g. only trading a few, specific but globally relevant crops, e.g. wheat in the TWIST model) as well as Partial and General Computational Equilibrium Models (e.g. MAgPIE, ICES), material flow and/or input-output models (Trase, IOTA, FABIO) and agent-based models (ACCLIMATE) as well as financial models including effects on investments and investor portfolios, the insurance industry (e.g. CLIMADA) and econometric/spatial interaction models for migration. By explaining and exchanging these existing models in between different modelling groups, WG2 will foster the development of methods and tools to link impact transmission chain models with the biophysical impact model simulations of WG1.

WG2 will foster the exchange of and the quality control of software and code developed to conduct cascading climate impact assessments and deals with issues relevant to uncertainty assessment in impact transmission chain models such as the consideration of (implicit) economic assumptions built into trade models. The COST networking tools in WG2 will support researchers to get acquainted with the main impact transmission chain models and model comparison techniques to foster the development of impact transmission chain models and their contribution to impact model comparisons in countries where such efforts are currently underrepresented.

Leaders: Dr Hanne Knaepen & Katy Harris

WG3 brings together political scientists that are developing and analysing policies that deal with adaptation to climate change but also systemic risks and resilience building. The focus of WG3 is to collect and understand the degree to which cross-sectoral cascading climate impacts and especially responses to them are conceived at EU level but also especially at EU Member State level and in other COST countries and NNCs. There are large differences in the degree to which cascading climate impacts are acknowledged and represented in the different countries and the networking will yield important insights how different political backgrounds affect the design and uptake of adaptation policies to these cross-sectoral cascading climate impacts.

Therefore, the coordination and networking of WG3 is strongly needed to better understand and evaluate the policies that exist and are planned. Moreover, through the interaction with WG1 and WG2, the latest information about emerging crosssectoral, cascading climate impacts will highlight new fields of policy action such as a focus on adaptation pathways that combine and harmonise efforts to address cross-sectoral climate impacts. WG3 will also focus on assessing which aspects of cascading climate impacts are well covered and which are still unknown or known but for which responsibilities are not clarified (e.g. there is no clear policy structure for dealing with global timber supply chains, they are affected by trade policies but also nature conservation and climate policies).

Likewise, development policies can affect a wide range of cross-sectoral cascading climate impacts in very different ways. Therefore, ultimately, WG3 will foster the compilation and evaluation how policies for coping with cross-sectoral cascading climate impacts can be designed in a coherent way and which policies are actually contradicting themselves or even leading to maladaptation and increases in system risks. The COST networking tools in WG3 will foster the compilation and assessment of different policies that are responding to cross-sectoral, cascading climate impacts and systemic risks and resilience.

Leaders: Dr. Piotr Magnuszewski & Prof. Dr. Jana Sillmann

WG4 brings together scientists from WG1-3 and beyond that have expertise in engaging stakeholders as part of co-production of knowledge processes in relation to climate impacts and climate policy support but also wider topics such as systemic risks and resilience. The focus of WG4 is on discussing efficient communication and dissemination of cross-sectoral cascading impact studies and on getting an overview of innovative, in-depth stakeholder engagement methods such as Policy Simulations (an advanced form of serious games) or storyline development. These approaches are highly immersive and can ensure both that stakeholders act as in their actual role but also that they leave their current role and provide external reflections on it.

WG4 will discuss how to use various communication channels and methods to address different stakeholders that need to be informed about the same issue, e.g. how to communicate best about the impacts associated with changing trade patterns due to climate change to a group of trade experts or to the general public. It will also assess how to address stakeholders with very specific demands, e.g. about regional adaptation strategies. The COST networking tools in WG4 will foster further exchange between CROSS-CASCADE and wider stakeholder groups ensuring that their needs and views are represented in the generation of information about cross-sectoral, cascading climate impacts.