Validation of forest ecosystem modelling and cascading disturbances impacts implementation

Marco Baldo, PhD candidate at the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, completed a Short-Term Scientific Mission (STSM) at the Technical University of Zvolen (TUZVO), Slovakia, in collaboration with the Slovak Academy of Sciences under the supervision of Dr. Ing. Katarína Merganičová from June to July 2026.

During the research exchange, Marco developed a technical methodological framework to evaluate multi-temporal errors in forest dynamics across simulation and transmission of environmental inventory data within the forest dynamics model iLand, using field inventories and Airborne Laser Scanner data in the Białowieża National Park in Poland.

The research exchange has been very productive, and during this time Marco conducted numerous experiments, developed methods and scripts to initialise climatic and forest ecosystem data in the iLand model, created the required files for the scenario simulation analysis, and made the process fully automated and open-source.

Moreover, the STSM was crucial to create the link between climate and forest dynamics modellers with forest researchers who studied and monitored the primary forest of Białowieża, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Thanks to their extensive dataset, we have been able to develop a comprehensive methodological approach to forecast future forest dynamics, cascading risks from climate change, and disturbance impacts. On the other hand, this research work will give relevance to their data and enable a better understanding of the future challenges for the forest managers of the Białowieża National Park.

Marco would like to express his sincere thanks to the EU COST Association and COST Action CA24163 CROSS-CASCADE for supporting this Short-Term Scientific Mission and the linked research project.